With less than 2 weeks before the next Senedd parliamentary election, Dr Olwen Williams, RCP vice president for Wales, takes a look at the manifesto proposals from the major political parties and reflects on what the next 5 years might have in store for doctors working in the Welsh NHS.
Who would be a political pollster these days?
In less than a fortnight, the people of Wales will vote to elect 60 members of the Senedd (MSs), 14 of whom will form the next Welsh government. With a mixture of first-past-the-post voting in constituencies and proportional representation across five regions, we are used to coalition governments, budget deals and confidence-and-supply agreements. Since the advent of devolution, Welsh Labour have been the biggest party in the Senedd – but they almost always find themselves making a deal with either Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Liberal Democrats or independent MSs.
This time, it would be a rash pollster who predicted the outcome with any degree of certainty. In the past few weeks, a variety of polls have been published: one predicted Welsh Labour was on course for its worst result in the past 2 decades, taking only 22 of 60 seats. Only a few days later, a different poll put them at 29 seats – within touching distance of a working majority. The latest YouGov poll was published this week: it gave Welsh Labour 26 seats, Plaid Cymru 17, the Welsh Conservatives 14 seats, Abolish the Assembly two and the Welsh Liberal Democrats one.
It’s also possible that we’ll have a new health minister. Vaughan Gething has been in the job for some years now, and it’s no secret that he wants a shot at the top job. He stood against Mark Drakeford in the Welsh Labour leadership election in 2018 and came second. It’s absolutely certain that there’ll be a sea of new faces when the Senedd finally meets again in person: more than a third of members elected in 2016 will not be returning this time – even before any seats change hands.
Whatever the actual result on Thursday 6 May, one thing is beyond doubt. The incoming Welsh Government faces an unenviable uphill struggle as we recover from the COVID-19 pandemic: economic uncertainty, growing inequalities, a health system that has been battered and bruised by the pandemic, and an exhausted NHS workforce who need support more than ever.
In February, the RCP launched an updated set of manifesto calls, Recover, rebuild, renew. Among the 50 recommendations aimed at the Welsh government and NHS Wales, we highlighted three key campaign calls: increase the supply of doctors across the medical workforce, invest in community medicine and social care, and tackle growing health inequalities with a cross-government strategy.
Political parties have now published their manifestos. What does the future hold for the Welsh NHS?
Well, the Welsh Conservatives are promising to guarantee increased NHS spending every year, deliver 1,200 more doctors, and reduce waiting lists. Welsh Labour are promising to invest in new diagnostics and technologies and invest in 12,000 new medical staff by 2026. The Welsh Liberal Democrats are promising to increase mental health spending and establish a taskforce on health inequalities. Plaid Cymru are promising to establish a new national health and social care service and recruit 1,000 doctors, 4,000 nurses and 1,000 allied health professionals.
There were some key themes across the manifestos from the Big Four: the nation’s recovery from the pandemic – of course – as well as the green economy, mental health, and social care. Health inequalities is another big one. All parties have committed to a Clean Air Act. Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour have both committed to a new medical school in north Wales. The Welsh Conservatives have promised to build five community hospitals and a network of rapid diagnostic centres.
On reflection, there’s lots for us to work with here. Realistically, we’re expecting another Welsh Labour-led government, so it’s very reassuring to see that their manifesto promises more staff for the NHS, a new medical school for north Wales, and investment in the integrated care of older people with complex needs. Plaid Cymru is the obvious choice for a deal: they also promise more doctors, more integrated health and social care, more action on health inequalities. Still, the Welsh Liberal Democrats might find themselves in a bargaining position: they want to see improvements to NHS workforce planning and better access to training, so no arguments from me there.
Our campaign messages have clearly been heard loud and clear, and I’m delighted about that. The priorities of our fellows and members are also the priorities of those hoping to be elected in May: the challenge for us now is to keep the pressure on so that when the election is over and the sixth Senedd opens for business, those priorities remain high on the agenda.
More doctors, more investment in social care, more cross-government action on inequalities. It’s time to see some results.
Read more about our manifesto calls for the next Welsh government.